The CIS: another state institution at the service of the governing party

In advanced European democracies, as ours should be after almost 50 years of tradition, some institutions must remain above political parties. They serve the state and provide a service to all citizens, regardless of the political colour of the government of the day. That is the role played by the Bank of Spain, SEPI, the government’s stakes in companies, the CNMV, which oversees the securities market, RTVE and the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), which surveys the public to obtain data of relevance to the state. But Pedro Sánchez’s arrival in power led to the colonisation of all state institutions by socialist friends and party members. In the case of the CIS, its president, José Félix Tezanos, was a member of the PSOE executive, which he left one day before being appointed, and had no qualms about declaring himself independent. And it was not just him: a whole army of socialists have been brought into the institution, with the result that the CIS’s budget has risen from €8 million in 2018, Mariano Rajoy’s final year as president, to €17.2 million this year. That is more than double the budget, paid for by everyone and serving Sánchez. Now let us look at the CIS’s performance in election polls. Its lack of scruples and rigour has consistently resulted in victories for the PSOE and its left-wing allies. In its poll for the 2019 general election, the CIS forecast PSOE: 30%, PP: 17%, Podemos: 13%, Vox: 12%. The result was PSOE: 28%, PP: 20.8%, Vox: 15%, Podemos: 12.4%. For the most recent general election, in June 2023, the CIS forecast PSOE: 31.2%, PP: 30.7%, Sumar: 14.3%, Vox: 10.6%; the actual result was PP: 33.5%, PSOE: 31.7%, Vox: 12.4%, Sumar: 12.3%. At the most recent elections in the Valencian Community, the CIS forecast PP: 25.4%, PSOE: 24.8%, Compromis: 14.7%, Vox: 12%. But despite the morale boost they gave themselves, the result was different: PP: 33.3%, PSOE: 28.4%, Compromis: 14.3%, Vox: 12.4%. The same pattern appeared in the other regional election polls: underestimating the prospects of the PP and Vox and suggesting that the left was winning or close to winning, with the PSOE always in the lead. The CIS even forecast a technical tie in the Madrid regional election, when the result was an absolute majority for the PP. In light of all this, it is worth considering what kind of CIS would best serve the public: professional, independent sociologists and, above all, cuts to unnecessary spending. An institution that conducts polls cannot keep getting them wrong and cost us twice as much into the bargain.